Review of Invention and Innovation by Vaclav Smil

Vaclav Smil, Invention and Innovation. MIT Press. 2024. ISBN: 978-0-262-55101-4. $19.95.

Recently, many technologies have been branded as “inevitable”: 3D television, the Metaverse (the online environment with legless avatars from Facebook’s parent company, not Neal Stephenson’s conception from the novel Snow Crash), and vacuum-based transportation systems. The first two technologies in that list are no longer extant and the third, though allegedly implemented in Las Vegas as the Hyperloop, consists of human drivers piloting cars through underground tunnels instead of pneumatic tubes ferrying passengers in a high-speed subway system.

In his book Invention and Innovation, published by MIT Press, Dr. Vaclav Smil examines the history of technological hype within three categories of products: inventions that turned from welcome to unwelcome, inventions that were supposed to dominate but did not, and inventions we keep waiting for. The first category includes effective but harmful substances such as the insecticide DDT and lead as a fuel additive; the second features aircraft such as the zeppelin (lighter than air) and supersonic transport such as the Concorde, both of which fell out of favor when reasonable alternatives arose; and we’re still waiting for our flying cars, jetpacks, and vacuum-tube conveyances that have been promised for years but never delivered.

I was a bit surprised that Smil spends relatively little time on artificial intelligence (AI), but after a few paragraphs on the nature and expense of AI output and the cost of its training, he sums up his two pages on the subject this way:

“The conclusion is obvious: our quest for AI is an enormously complex, multifaceted process whose progress must be measured across decades and generations and whose impressive achievements on some relatively easy tasks coexist with the much larger realm of intelligence that remains well beyond the capabilities of programmed machines.”

Each of Smil’s cases provides important context for the current economic and technological environment. I read Invention and Innovation in its entirety and believe that’s the best way to take in his arguments and analysis, but I also think the book would be equally useful as a reference work for researchers and policy makers or as part of the readings for a course on the social impacts of technology and how it is marketed. Smil’s congenial writing style and comprehensive framework make it easy to appreciate his sensible approach to evaluating claims for products marketed now and in the future.